How many Mauritians will die of H1N1?
18. Aug, 2009 
7 Comments
Most Mauritians I know are poor at Mathematics. They are even worse at making sense of statistics. Is this the result of our distorted educational system, where C.P.E. kids learn how to solve maths problem by heart? Where later on, UoM students learn programs by heart before going to the exams? Who knows, who cares?! Today, I will try to make some H1N1 stats mashable for some of my dear blog readers.A quick look at the rather outdated WHO page which gives us the following table:
| Region | Cases | Deaths | Mortality rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa | 591 | 1 | 0.17% |
| Americas | 102905 | 1274 | 1.24% |
| Eastern Mediterranean | 2346 | 7 | 0.30% |
| Europe | 32000+ | 53 | 0.17% |
| South East Asia | 11432 | 83 | 0.73% |
| Western Pacific | 28120 | 43 | 0.15% |
| Total | 177457 | 1462 | 0.82% |
First, I do not know how the WHO got the number 1462 for total number of deaths. When I add the numbers from the different regions, I get 1461! Secondly, we should note that the number of registered cases is an underestimate, since individual countries are not forced to report on the number of cases. This means that the real mortality rate must be lower than what is calculated in the above table.
Whatever, let’s stop questioning the validity of their data and let’s play with these numbers to project the number of deaths in Mauritius. We have roughly 1,200,000 people in Mauritius. Let us assume that 30% of the population will get this flu. This means 360,000 people might be infected.
Actually, this death rate is a ridiculous over-estimate according to me. If the death rate is like seasonal flu, i.e. less than 0.05%, the death toll would be around 180, a more realistic figure. Of course, this is an over-simplistic model: epidemiologists use sophisticated model which produce more accurate predictions. However, I seriously doubt that their projected figure will be higher that 4464, or lower than 180.
After all the scare articles, the worry articles, the constant vigilance articles etc., I'm glad you're taking a logical (and mathematical!) approach to Swine Flu. Personally I think the scaremongering doesn't help. Remember the scare with Avian flu, the masks, the scans at airports, kill your chickens etc, etc, well "248 humans have died from the H5N1 in twelve countries according to WHO data as of January 2009" (Wikipdia).
Ok Swine flu deaths is a lot higher to date, but I stand by my comment, the scaremongering will not help.
The WHO doesn't have a calculator ^^…and you know, here, people just go with their own statistics, the media will give you a number of death, the government another one and the doctors another one…yesterday i was reading an article from AFP and they said only three Mauritians died of the swinn flu…:p! Let's pray that no more mauritians died from H1N1
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Mauritius (H1N1):« Seuls les femmes enceintes et ceux admis en soins intensifs seront testés » http://bit.ly/n6FZw
I just wish there won't be none of your loved ones among the 180 you so lightheartedly calculated.
From: a mauritian living in mauritius.
"I just wish there won't be none of your loved ones among the 180 you so lightheartedly calculated.
From: a mauritian living in mauritius."
From a mauritian living in Mauritius?? what does that mean? Trying to highlight the fact that Bruno isnt in Mauritius and implying somehow that he cant offer a logical view of what could happen? What an idiot!Bruno, you should block such ppl! They just piss me off! Next time, put your name up mate, dont have a go and then hide behind an anonymous tag like a wimp!
Anyway, nice one Bruno. But I don't think it will be anywhere near the mortality rate of seasonal flu. But like you said, it cant exceed the African average.
Ouch, I do hope it's lower than the 180… But given how things are going, only a huge number might make the authorities to take some action…
@Selective Apathy
It's reassuring to see that many bloggers are against the scaremongers.
@La Pingouine
The WHO does receive meaningful statistics: it is their job to monitor the situation and tell countries what to do.
@Mauritian living in Mauritius
You are a mere coward, hiding behind anonymity to write nonsense. It's a shame there are people like you in Mauritius.
@Yashi
Thanks for the support. Ena de fwa mo diman mwa sipa certain morisiens zalou ban sa ki dehor, pou ki zot debit ban imbecilite pareil
@Nussaibah
The authorities are doing what they can. However, they are too late and have failed to take preventive measures before. This is why the Labour party is so lame at governing the country.